Australia’s fifth wave of asylum seekers

Abul Rizvi

March 2022

In Australia’s history, we have had five major waves of asylum seekers.

The first was the boat arrivals from Indo-China following the Vietnam War. The total number of people who made it to Australia in that wave was slightly over 2,000. Most others were resettled under the Comprehensive Plan of Action.

The second was the surge in asylum applications after the Tiananmen Square massacre. A little over 20,000 students were in Australia on the 4th of June 1989 who would go on to apply for asylum. Another 22,000 students were subsequently granted 4-year Temporary Protection Visas and eventually granted permanent residence visas, under the so-called ‘1 November’ provisions.

The third wave was prior to and immediately after Tampa and the initial establishment of offshore processing. Most of those asylum seekers were granted protection, primarily in Australia. A small number were resettled in other nations, mainly New Zealand.

The fourth wave was in 2007 under the Rudd Government with many of these asylum seekers either on Temporary Protection Visas or still awaiting the outcome of their applications. There are around 700 such applications on hand at the AAT.

The fifth wave took place from 2015 and was initially associated with people arriving on visitor visas from Malaysia and China (see Chart 1). This has been by far the largest wave at over 100,000 asylum applicants. International border closures significantly slowed asylum applications associated with that wave.

A key difference between the fifth wave and the previous four waves is that the bulk of applications in this wave are being refused protection at both the primary stage and at the AAT. The wave appears to be associated with a labour trafficking operation to supply labour to farms across Australia (see this article from a retired teacher in Mildura).

While Agriculture Minister David Littleproud, at the encouragement of various farm lobby groups, proposed an amnesty for these unsuccessful asylum seekers, that was rejected by Attorney-General Michaelia Cash. The Attorney-General did not, however, propose any other alternative policy solution.

The size of the asylum backlog at both primary stage and at the AAT (see Chart 2) is such that it is now attracting asylum applications from a wider range of nationalities, including Pacific Islanders who also came to Australia to work on farms.

The backlog at the primary stage fell to just below 30,000 in January 2022. That was for the first time in a number of years. The caseload at the AAT continues to grow, and at the end of January 2022 was 34,886. The number refused at both the primary stage and at the AAT was 29,978.

While the caseload at the AAT is dominated by asylum seekers from Malaysia and China, there are also growing numbers from Vietnam, India, Thailand, Fiji and Indonesia. All these nationalities have very low approval rates at both primary stage and the AAT.

Very small numbers of refused asylum seekers are departing Australia, mostly on a voluntary basis. It is rare for an unsuccessful asylum seeker to be removed involuntarily. Compliance activity by the Australian Border Force has fallen to historically low levels, primarily due to a lack of resources and priority.

While the monthly asylum application rate at the primary level has steadily fallen (see Chart 5), this is expected to rise with the re-opening of international borders.

A large backlog of asylum cases creates two problems. It takes much longer for a genuine asylum seeker to receive protection, while rewarding people who may be gaming the system by providing work rights for a number of years.

Like the practice in most nations, Australia appears to be sweeping the issue under the carpet. This leads to creation of an underclass in society with no work rights, having to live and work in the shadows.

It is changing Australian society.

Abul Rizvi holds a PhD in population and immigration policy and was a senior official in the Department of Immigration from the early 1991 to 2007. He is a former deputy secretary of the department.

Abul has been awarded the Public Service Medal and the Centenary Medal for services to the development and implementation of Australian immigration policy.